A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
